Celtic in Europe has been lots of fireworks but mostly each side throwing haymakers

ELO ratings are a quantitative methodology derived from a ranking system developed to score chess players, and the Soccer Power Index is another quantitative methodology from 538. I’ve linked to one of the public ELO sights, but there are a few.

As we can observe, Bodo/Glimt come from a league with comparable overall ranking, and are in the neighborhood of Midtjylland in Club ELO and SPI. Importantly, the Norwegian league offers far more dispersion in quality, which I have included Hearts to highlight. There are five clubs in the Norwegian top flight with ELO and SPI rankings higher than Hearts, who are currently third in SPFL. The 12th place club in Norway’s top flight last season, Tromso, is currently 534 in ELO versus 547 for St. Johnstone, and 703 for Dundee.

This introduces the perpetual challenge for both Celtic and Rangers, which is outside of one another, domestic competition is significantly below the quality of opponents each typically face in European competitions.

So how did Celtic fare versus these levels of opponents? The following radars include the playoff draw versus AZ Alkmaar and the six Europa League group stage games:

What jumps out to me with these three radars is how successful Celtic were in attack and creating chances, but also how poor we were in preventing them. For example, in the first radar, we can see that Celtic were dead last in conceding xG from open play and shots from opponents pressing Celtic high, while close to last in conceding shots from counter-attacks. In a sense, Celtic’s performances at that level of opponent were sort of like Marvelous Marvin Hagler versus Tommy Hearns – lots of fireworks and excitement, but mostly each side throwing haymakers!

If we narrow in to review just the two group stage games versus Ferencvaros, who rank a notch below Bodo/Glimt, some additional context is available:

Celtic controlled both games reasonably well, and maintained a healthy advantage across various metrics, such as xG differential and a net OBV of 2.29-0.82 = 1.47. However, Ferencvaros played one of the most passive and least intense pressing styles of the 32 teams in the group stages, yet still caused Celtic issues when they did high press. Ferencvaros were also well below average relative to creating chances off the counter-attack.

As we turn our attention to Bodo/Glimt, the club has emerged the past few seasons as a domestic power within Norway. From the data available within Wyscout, a few things stand out.

First, the team has been very adept at progressing the ball via carries, both domestically and in Europe. For example, last season they averaged 34.05 progressive runs versus the next highest domestic competitor at 19.9! That largely carried over into the ECL group stages, with them having averaged 29.58, with Tottenham a distant second at 22.37.

They have played a 4-3-3 system across competitions, but their pressing-related metrics suggest to me a style closer to that of Rangers under Gerrard – i.e., pressing high selectively and focusing upon maintaining defensive shape. They have been a more possession-focused team, with approximately 57% rate across European games since last summer, including relative parity in the two games versus Roma.

While Bodo/Glimt is in their preseason and experienced some turnover in key players, their seeming combination of technically gifted and athletic players executing a robust and organized system should be an excellent gauge for our progress at this level. Some improvement in preventing chance creation would be ideal, but Bodo/Glimt is unlikely to make that endeavour an easy one.

My guess is more like if there had been a Hagler-Hearns II.