Celtic’s 3-1 win over Falkirk was far from straightforward, but as Martin O’Neill’s side kept pace in the title race, the performance offered three major reasons for optimism heading into the decisive final stretch, writes analyst Stewart Ross.
Celtic successfully navigated their first post-split fixture on Saturday evening, overcoming Falkirk 3–1 to keep pace in the Scottish Premiership title race.
A clinical brace from Daizen Maeda, coupled with a fierce finish from Kieran Tierney, ultimately proved decisive in securing three valuable points at Celtic Park, in a contest more competitive than the scoreline suggested.
It was another nervy encounter at times. Falkirk halved the deficit in the second half through a superb strike from Kyrell Wilson, and the visitors enjoyed spells of genuine control in the match.
Yet, as has been the case on several occasions this season, Martin O’Neill’s side demonstrated resilience and quality in key moments to see the job through – aided significantly by several eye-catching individual displays.
Here, we break down three performances from Saturday evening that should provide real encouragement for Celtic as the title run-in intensifies over the next few weeks.
Daizen Maeda
The xG race chart from Hudl StatsBomb above underlines just how tight an affair Saturday’s game was, with Celtic’s cumulative xG finishing at just 1.07 – only marginally ahead of Falkirk’s 0.98.
Ultimately, the difference was Celtic’s clinical edge in front of goal, something that has certainly not always been present this season.
Daizen Maeda embodied that cutting edge. After ending his recent goal drought in the previous weekend’s Scottish Cup semi-final victory over St Mirren, the Japanese forward was again trusted to lead the line centrally, and once more he delivered.
As ever, his relentless pressing set the tone. Maeda registered an incredible 37 pressures across the match, 14 more than any other player on the pitch, with Falkirk striker Barney Stewart the next closest. It was that work rate that created the opener, forcing Keelan Adams into a turnover before showing a level of composure not always associated with him in those situations, calmly steering the ball beyond goalkeeper Nicky Hogarth.
His second goal, which helped settle the nerves inside Celtic Park after Falkirk got one back, was a technically excellent first-time finish from Sebastian Tounekti’s cut-back.
From an underlying numbers perspective, this was a notable shift. Maeda has underperformed his expected goals across the league campaign – generating 11 xG but converting just seven goals before Saturday. Here, however, he scored twice from 0.65 xG, demonstrating an efficiency in front of goal that Celtic have been lacking all season.
Five shots – three more than his league average this season – further highlighted just how central he was to Celtic’s attacking output on the night.
He was also heavily involved in Tierney’s goal. Once again, it began with his aggressive pressing, regaining possession from Ben Broggio before linking with James Forrest and then slipping the ball into Tierney’s path, who went on to finish emphatically.
Now with five goal contributions across his last two matches, Maeda appears to be finding his best form at precisely the right moment.
Arne Engels
Celtic were certainly in a battle for long periods of the match on Saturday night, and while Daizen Maeda provided the decisive moments in the final third, those operating behind him had plenty of work to do.
In that respect, Arne Engels delivered one of his most industrious performances in a Celtic shirt. Only his second start after a two-month absence due to a thigh injury, the Belgian midfielder played a key role in helping Celtic regain some semblance of control during difficult spells, particularly through his off-the-ball work.
His contribution may not have been as eye-catching as the goalscorers’, but it was absolutely no less important. Engels consistently covered ground and pressed intensively, picking up loose balls and disrupting Falkirk’s build-up on several occasions.
He recorded the second-highest number of pressures in the Celtic team with 20, behind only Maeda, and registered the most counterpressures of any player on the pitch with nine – six more than Nygren and eight more than Callum McGregor. Those numbers underline just how important he was to Celtic without the ball and their ability to regain possession quickly in midfield areas.
Where his performance was less influential was in possession. Engels registered a negative on-ball value (OBV) of -0.05 from 28 passes, which again reflects Celtic’s broader struggle to establish consistent control of the match. McGregor, operating alongside him in the deeper role, posted an even lower figure of -0.10 from 30 passes, while Nygren – positioned higher up the pitch – fared somewhat better with a 0.08 score from 34 passes.
Improved quality and control on the ball will certainly be required across the final four matches of the season. However, if those games become the physical, contested battles that the weekend’s matches suggest they might, Engels’ energy, defensive intensity and willingness to do the hard yards in midfield will be absolutely vital.
Alistair Johnston
Not as match-defining a contribution as Maeda or Engels, Alistair Johnston’s 20-minute cameo after a lengthy lay-off with a hamstring injury still represented another big positive for O’Neill on Saturday.
The Canadian right-back’s return could prove extremely timely, and even in his brief spell on the pitch, he showed clear signs of the quality Celtic have been missing in recent months.
Assured and progressive in possession, Johnston looked immediately comfortable on his return. There were several positive forward actions, including a well-weighted pass over the Falkirk defensive line to Tounekti that highlighted both his vision and execution.
Despite playing his first competitive minutes in around six months, he appeared pretty sharp, showing strength in duels and the willingness to make aggressive forward movements. There were also encouraging examples of his trademark attacking support, particularly his well-timed underlapping runs into the final third.
The numbers, albeit from a small sample, were also quietly impressive. Johnston delivered one cross in his 20-minute cameo – the same total starting right-back Anthony Ralston managed across 70 minutes – and registered a touch inside the opposition box, something Ralston did not achieve during his time on the pitch.
From just 12 passes, Johnston posted an OBV value of 0.04 – the highest of any Celtic defender on Saturday and stronger than Ralston’s -0.01 from 30 passes.
Only the other long-term absentees, Jota and Cameron Carter-Vickers, could reasonably be considered bigger misses to this Celtic squad than Johnston over the past six months. Even if he is not yet fully back to the levels he was operating at before his injury, his presence across the final four league matches could prove hugely significant.
In terms of performance, Saturday was once again not overly convincing. However, it was another example of a team finding a way to get the job done. In tight matches at this stage of the season, individual moments and performances tend to be decisive — and Celtic got them in some key areas of the pitch.
Maeda’s rediscovered cutting edge, Engels’ energy and drive in midfield, and Johnston’s timely return from injury each address different needs within the squad – all of which have been lacking at one point or another this season.
If these key performers can continue to step up in those critical moments over the final four league matches, there may yet be a positive conclusion to what has been a turbulent campaign.
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