Reports recently that Liel Abada may have decided to stay at Celtic for at least another season were greeted with more of a mixed response in comparison to some recent signings and prominent player extensions.

In a prior iteration of my performance data benchmarking exercise, the initial analysis of the Abada signing was not a positive one. Following some confirmation bias-fueled yelling at the television during one of his early-season and seemingly frequent failed dribbling attempts, my eye test began to align with that initial analysis.

Then a funny thing started to happen - Abada started playing like a chance creating and taking machine. Between his first competitive appearance versus Midtjylland, the Europa League qualifiers versus Jablonec and AZ Alkmaar, and the first four league games, Abada accumulated four goals and had three assists, with both of those tallies also reflected by expected goals and expected assists data.

When confronted with contradictory evidence, it is easy to fall into dissonance and make excuses to try and avoid confronting the potential that analysis, or more vividly, that ugly guy staring back in the mirror, may have been badly mistaken. By the onset of the winter break, I had seen enough to change my view while embracing the fact that Abada remained quite an unusual player. 

For a winger/inverted forward, his attacking output has been excellent:

Celtic Way:

While Jota played almost eight more 90-minute equivalents over the past two seasons in league games, we can see from this first radar that Abada’s attacking output has been superior to that of a player just sold for £25m. Of course, some of this may be due to various factors, such as Abada’s use primarily as a substitute against tired opponents in many of 2022/2023 campaign appearances, but it was encouraging nonetheless. 

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The radar also highlights that pesky negative confirmation bias related to his difficulty beating opposing players with his dribble, as his success rate was just in the 13th percentile among his senior competition peer group via StatsBomb’s benchmark.

Celtic Way:

What Abada has lacked with his dribbling, this on-ball value radar highlighted his effectiveness in carrying the ball in space, as we recently saw once again in the friendlies in Japan. Abada rampaging down the wing after getting in behind the defence and creating a quality chance for a team-mate has become one of his mainstay moves. Indeed, despite averaging about ten fewer carries per 90 minutes and being poor with his dribbles compared to Jota, his dribble and carry OBV was significantly higher. 

The flip side of that was evident in the respective players’ volume of open play passes and pass OBV, with Jota’s lower turnover rate per pass and comparable chance creation, helping drive a higher pass OBV per pass from open play. The defensive OBV and related volume-oriented metrics displayed a similar advantage to the Portuguese, who was hardly confused with a defensive and pressing stalwart during his time at Celtic. 

This is where it could be argued it is important to remember the age disparity between the two players and realise that Jota will be relatively close to the peak of a winger's physical development curves, while Abada performed over the two seasons between ages 19 and 21. With him turning 22 this coming October, it is reasonable to expect that he may still have ample room for development. 

As Alan Morrison wrote back in March, Abada has shown some signs of just the sort of player development Celtic supporters could hope for from their younger stars. The next three radars compare Abada to himself over the past two league campaigns, broken out by attacking, defending and then a consolidated on-ball value format:

Celtic Way:

We can see general improvement within this attacking radar, though the xG per shot and deriving the average xG assisted from open play per key pass from open play are important to me, with both showing improved average quality of chances taken and created for his teammates. 

Celtic Way:

As Alan’s column also highlighted, his defensive metrics are a bit more mixed, but overall there is more evidence to be encouraged about. Specifically, his effectiveness in counter-pressing and a general increase in the volume of actions were evident.

Celtic Way:

The on-ball value radar showed improvement across the board with the exception of shot OBV, where he remained around average for his peer group and is vulnerable to volatility due to the relatively low volume of shots players take over shorter periods of time. 

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This brings me to the last radar, which compares Abada and Jota just in last season’s league minutes:

Celtic Way:

If we back out the shot OBV metric, we see from the radar that Abada and Jota were fairly comparable. This exercise was not intended to pass judgment as to which player was or is “better,” but to highlight how well Abada has performed during his Celtic tenure, while also stressing his age and potential for further improvement.

He still has obvious aspects to his game which could benefit from further development, and should that occur, Celtic could be looking at having one of Europe’s most exciting young wingers under contract.