How corner gains are edging Celtic closer to SPFL Premiership title

Despite Elie Youan being ordered off for the visitors midway through the first half, Celtic found themselves behind at the break after Josh Campbell’s opener from the penalty spot.

Jota got the Hoops back on level terms early in the second half but Lee Johnson’s side continued to frustrate the league leaders before substitutes Oh Hyeon-gyu headed in from a corner in the final ten minutes and Sead Haksabanovic added a third in injury time.

A win that restores a nine-point lead at the top of the Premiership going into the final international break of the season, victory over the capital side at the weekend also means Celtic have won their opening 15 home league games for just the second time in the club’s history.

However, it is safe to say Celtic were not at their sparkling best on Saturday afternoon. Manager Ange Postecoglou pointed to the ‘chaotic’ nature of the match, the first half in particular, as a contributing factor in his side’s lack of rhythm.

The loss of Reo Hatate to injury after just 13 minutes disrupted things further. With another of Postecoglou’s central creative forces this season, Aaron Mooy, already missing due to injury, this led to a lack of fluency in Celtic’s play.

In the end, though, Celtic were able to find a way to overcome these issues, and the Leith side’s stubborn approach with 10 men, thanks to a corner routine which was brilliantly finished by January signing Oh.

Here, we break down that game-defining set-piece routine as well as how Celtic’s efficiency from attacking corners has given them an added edge in the race for the Scottish Premiership title and, consequently, a historic treble…

Oh goal (82 mins)

Introduced as part of a triple change on the hour mark, Oh’s physical presence gave the Hibs defence a different problem to deal with.

That was evident from corners even before the goal with the 21-year-old South Korean’s movement and power seeing him get first contact on dead ball deliveries on two occasions.

Off target with those initial two efforts from corners, it was the third time lucky for Oh in the 82nd minute though.

The above initial still shows Celtic set-up from the decisive set play. Captain Callum McGregor offers the short pass option while Kyogo and Jota take up positions on the edge of the box, Kyogo more centrally, Jota deeper to then make a movement round the back.

Abada is the deepest in the box at this point with Celtic’s three biggest threats, Carl Starfelt, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Oh forming a tight unit on the penalty spot. Right-back Alistair Johnston is also just in front.

For Hibs, they adopt a mixed zonal/man-marking system. In the box, they are man for man but also have one front post zonal one zonal on the edge between Kyogo and Jota. 

The three-man unit of Starfelt, Carter-Vickers and Oh is key here. As can be seen in the above close-up, they are deliberately very close together, Starfelt with both arms around his own players to keep them as tight as possible.

This makes it extremely difficult for the Hibs defenders to get tight goal-side. It also makes things particularly difficult for Chris Cadden, who is picking up Starfelt.

Although there is some separation and Cadden momentarily gets closer to Starfelt as the unit breaks, the Swedish defender’s run around the outside of Oh and his marker, Campbell, drags the Hibs man to the front post area.

This, as well as a similar front post run from Johnston, emptied the space in the middle of the box for Oh to attack the ball. 

The South Korean still had plenty to do himself though. His well-timed quick movement got him in front of Campbell as the ball was in flight, and then his upper body strength to hold him off ensured he got to Turnbull’s fine delivery first to send Celtic Park into raptures.

StatsBomb data

Oh’s goal in the 82nd minute came from Celtic’s 14th corner of the game. In total, they racked up 15 and generated a cumulative expected goals (xG) value of 0.87, just under a quarter of their 4.09 xG match total.

Admittedly, this only works out at 0.058 xG per corner but is still above Celtic’s league average xG per corner of 0.04.

It is worth noting at this point that the value of corners is a lot less than might be expected. Between 2010 and 2020, only around 3 per cent of corners taken in Europe’s top five leagues led to a goal, as highlighted by Tifo Football.

That said, marginal gains are still gains and further data from StatsBomb reveals more about Celtic’s efficiency from attacking corners this season.

Unsurprisingly given their dominance in league games, Celtic do take more attacking corners than any other team – the data provider has the Hoops averaging 7.66 per 90. 

However, this is only slightly more than rivals Rangers (7.21 per 90) with third and fourth highest, Hibernian (5.59 per 90) and St Mirren (5.46 per 90) only a few back too.

The base numbers clearly show Celtic have maximised these dead-ball situations better than anyone though with their 13 goals from corners (14 per cent of all their total league goals scored) almost double that of any other team in the Scottish Premiership this season. Rangers and Kilmarnock come closest with seven each.

Looking at the underlying numbers does show there has been a bit of an overperformance, in relation to the actual corner goals scored compared to the quality of chances created from these set-plays. Their 13 corner goals work out at 0.45 per 90, a good bit above their 0.31 per 90 expected corner goals.

That 0.31 xG per 90 from corners is still the highest in the league this season too though. Even more impressively, it is the highest season per 90 number value from the last five seasons. Last season, Postecoglou’s first, was the second highest at 0.29 per 90.

So even if there has been some overperformance when it comes to maximising those chances, which can happen over the course of the season, Celtic are still ahead of the rest when it comes to the quality of chances created from attacking corners too.

Conclusion

If Celtic go on to do what is becoming somewhat inevitable, secure a second successive league title under Postecoglou, then the scintillating attacking brand of football that the Australian has brought to Celtic Park will be once again lauded, and rightly so.

However, anyone who has watched Postecoglou’s Celtic over the last two seasons knows this team are more than capable of finding another way of winning when required too.

Their effectiveness from set plays, attacking corners in particular, has certainly been one of those other ways with first-team coach Gavin Strachan, previously singled out by the manager for his work leading on that area at Lennoxtown, due further praise.

It was that work that made the difference when it mattered most on Saturday and ultimately took Celtic another step closer to the Scottish Premiership title.