Celtic's wingers give Ange Postecoglou an answer to every problem

This fact was mentioned in passing as an explanation for why James Forrest was starting on the right wing. With Sead Haksabanovic already missing with a foot injury, the Scotland international and Daizen Maeda were deemed the fittest options for the match. Fortunately Maeda, at least, was and is in fine form following his stellar World Cup for Japan.

Assuming the squad returns to normal levels of health in the coming weeks, what wing combination should ideally prevail for the rest of the season?

Options

Celtic have five primary choices to play in the two wide attacking positions the manager prefers.

Jota is a traditional winger who likes to get one-v-one with an opponent and beat him with either trickery or pace. He can play on both sides but is more productive in scoring from the left and more creative for others off the right.

Forrest is now the veteran of the group. His career was built on raw pace and direct running at goal. He is one of three players in modern times to have accrued over 100 goals and assists for Celtic. That speed has since dimmed but he remains an intelligent asset nonetheless.

READ MORE: The Celtic shooting trend that could make difference in treble tilt

Haksabanovic seems a throwback to earlier times. Slightly bow-legged, he loves to dribble and trick an opponent and also has an eye for a defence-splitting pass. The Montenegrin is not much of a goal threat so far but he can create a chance from anywhere across the frontline.

Maeda does as much damage without the ball as with it. He presses and harries the opposition defence relentlessly and is comfortable starting central as well as wide. He does not look to trick or dribble but relies on raw pace, ideally running onto through balls.

Liel Abada is the baby of the bunch at 21. As a winger, he is learning his trade and is developing a mix of pace and trickery.

Based on performances in the first half of the season, which pairing should lead the charge to seek another treble for Celtic?

On-ball Value

Let’s start with StatsBomb’s aggregated OBV metrics. While the calculation specifics are proprietary, the objective of these metrics is to consider the overall effectiveness of actions in relation to either scoring or stopping goals.

For wingers, here’s pass-and-shot OBVs:

StatsBomb really doesn’t like Maeda. He barely registers above zero on either metric. We’ll dive into some components that may go into this further to see if it can be deciphered why.

Forrest has the strongest shot OBV, heavily influenced by his hat-trick against Hibernian no doubt as this data covers SPFL matches only. His passing OBV, meanwhile, is zero.

The other three wingers have more rounded contributions with Haksabanovic strongest in passing and Abada in shooting, which will make sense a little bit later on.

It is probably a surprise to see Jota not dominating but he has had injury issues this season. 

Goal threat

Note that all wingers mentioned had over 200 Champions League minutes apart from Forrest, who clocked 88.

The very notion of a 'winger' could possibly be considered old language. With teams mainly set up with a single striker or lead attack focal point, the wider forwards are expected to contribute as much to scoring as creating and indeed to pressing without the ball.

The way to goal for Celtic’s wide players fits into three stylistic models. Firstly, those that make runs from out to in and arrive in the middle of the goal – Maeda and Abada.

Secondly, those who stay wider and tend to cut in to take shots from long range – Jota and Haksabanovic. The third type would be Forrest, who does not take long shots but sometimes makes runs into the centre of the goal.

It could be argued that many Celtic supporters continue to underestimate what a dangerous player Abada is. This may stem from him having obvious flaws as a wide player while displaying elite-level instincts as a goalscorer. His xG per 90 minutes far exceeds the other wide players (0.76) and is closer to the out-and-out strikers. Also, his xG per shot is good at 0.2.

Maeda is an interesting one. He has a relatively low volume and overall xG but once he gets the ball in the box he tends to receive it in very dangerous areas. As seen at Ibrox, his speed in transition means he often gets in behind defences.

We can see above that Abada takes more shots inside the box than the rest hence the xG profile. Maeda barely shoots outside the area (his goal against Hibernian being a glorious exception) and really barely shoots at all. The Japan international also has the lowest touches in the opposition box (4.3) while the Israeli has the most (7.3). 

Jota and Haksabanovic are nearer 50-50 in terms of shot origin with the Portuguese wide man, in particular, tending to take too many low-probability strikes.

If you simply need a goal, then it would probably be Abada on the right and Maeda on the left.

Creativity

Looking at chances created (volume) and expected assists per 90 minutes (quality), the population splits into two camps.

It is no surprise to see Jota and Haksabanovic well ahead in terms of both quality and quantity of chances created for others. Jota creates the most chances with 3.17 per 90 with only David Turnbull (3.57) creating more, though he has the added caveat of being a regular set-piece taker.

Forrest and Maeda are far less creative although their numbers would be welcomed by any other team in the league and both average over 0.3 xA per game which is excellent.

However, the best quality chances are coming from Abada who provides 2.5 chances per match at an average of 0.57 xA per match, an exceptional figure. Basically, anything over 0.4 xA is an exception if you were to assess players in the top five leagues in Europe. Celtic are, of course, a highly dominant side so their numbers will be exceptional on occasion.

The above data drills down more specifically to the skill of providing completed passes into the danger zone. That is the area central to the goal within the opposition box.

Jota and Haksabanovic deliver twice the volume of such passes compared to Forrest and Maeda with Abada being in the middle of that. 

Deep creation

Working back, let’s consider the contribution to progressing the ball further back and essentially linking the play.

For this, the number of pack passes will be plotted (passes that are forward and take opponents out of the game) and also the volume of secondary assisting passes (passes before that which create the chance).

By these measures, Haksabanovic clearly shines as someone who is creating all over the park and not just the final third. It is why he is sometimes deployed as a number 10 as well as wide. 

Again, Abada may surprise some people with his contribution to build-up play suggesting he could be useful as a number 10 also, or maybe as a false nine given his finishing ability.

Maeda, always looking to run in behind defences, is unsurprisingly the least creative by these measures.

Defending

It is a team game and defending from the front is a Postecoglou fundamental.

For this view, we have plotted a combination of StatsBomb pressure per 90 minutes and my own defensive action success rate – the percentage of defensive actions won. 

It's no shock that Maeda is a standout in this regard. He puts in more than double the pressure on the opposition when they have the ball than most of the other wingers.

He also wins 52 per cent of his defensive actions, which is a figure you would expect to see from a full-back rather than an attacking player.

If you looked at this analysis from prior seasons before Postecoglou, Forrest would have been the most defensively active wide player in the squad. Not only is he clearly contributing less due to age but the style of the team and the recruitment of pressing wingers have changed the squad profile. 

Haksabanovic, in this case, looks every inch the modern winger.

Summary

This was a short odyssey through a wealth of data on Celtic wingers. The point really worth making here is that Postecoglou has recruited an array of attacking talent that each provides a unique and different problem for the opponent.

Do the opposition leave space behind a high line? Maeda. Struggling for a goal? Abada. Need to break down an obdurate and deep defence? Haksabanovic. Wanting to expose opposition full-backs? Jota. See out a tight game with experience? Forrest

Jota and Haksabanovic are incredibly creative around the park. Abada and Forrest are reliable scorers. Maeda will give you elite-level pressing from the front.

READ MORE: Reo Hatate, Aaron Mooy and the Celtic quadrant of doom

The short answer to the original question is that the manager can pick and choose a combination of wingers to suit the problems posed by various opponents.

At the start of the season, many may have imagined that Jota and Maeda would be the first picks. However, Haksabanovic’s creativity and Abada’s continuing development as a number-munching monster give plenty of pause for thought.

And don’t forget Forrest – there are no metrics for 'seen it and done it' but he will likely remain invaluable in developing and supporting his younger colleagues as the season goes on.