Expected goals (xG) has grown to become one of the most-used and oft-cited metrics in football analytics.

The idea behind it is to figure out how many goals a team - or a player - should have scored based on the quality of chances they created or were presented with.

It is a useful way to dig into a team's performance; we use it all the time here at The Celtic Way. While the numbers are grounded in what a team has done, xG can be utilised as a tool to try to predict what a team will do as well.

Using this, we can employ xG to help come up with an 'expected points' value for a game, based largely on how one-sided a game it was in terms of chances created. Assigning an xP value over a period of time will demonstrate an over or underperformance and help us draw conclusions or decide which areas of a team's display might require deeper analysis.

Furthering this, we have partnered with a football analyst assigned to use StatsBomb data to produce and update an 'Expected Points League Table' for the Scottish Premiership.

We will publish this periodically for you here and across social media to discuss, dissect and disseminate. The latest update is below.

Celtic Way:

Celtic still sit pretty at the top after resuming domestic football with three successive victories. They are currently projected to reach over 90 points for the season.

Closest challengers Rangers are still underperforming slightly with 36 actual points compared to an xP of 40.8 while St Mirren are the biggest overperformers so far with 10 full points more than their current xP.

Keep your eyes peeled for more updates as the season progresses.

For a breakdown of analytical terms, visit our jargon-buster.

Celtic Way:

Our Celtic Digest newsletter brings exclusive content directly to you rather than solely through the website. You can already find us on YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram but we will also send bespoke opinion pieces and special features every day directly to your email inbox every evening. Not only will you receive this article from Sean Martin, Tony Haggerty or Aidan Macdonald (or, sometimes, all three) but you will also get easy access to our best content from the last 24 hours too. It’s a great way to keep up to date with what’s happening at Ange Postecoglou’s Scottish champions. To sign up, simply take five seconds to type in your email here. Simple!