There is no doubt that Ange Postecoglou has, in a short period with a window and a half at best, already shaped a Celtic side to be coherent to his vision, at least domestically.
Last summer’s transfer window was a blur, and to think Cameron Carter-Vickers and Jota arrived on deadline day emphasises how skittish it all was. In winter, a ruthlessly focused recruitment approach saw known players purchased to fit a well-defined plan. This summer will be pivotal to see further improvements.
European performances will be addressed in another piece - this one will focus on the home front.
Postecoglou conquered the Scottish league despite having a patchwork side for much of the season. Yet Celtic’s closest direct opponent reached a European final and will once again be their main rivals in the new season.
Rangers’ approach seems to be that the side good enough to reach a European final will be good enough to go again. There is certainly logic to that.
And, of course, given CEO Stewart Robertson's assertions that the recent Europa run made the Light Blues more than if they’d qualified for the Champions League - plus the Nathan Patterson sale and Steven Gerrard compensation package - Celtic may need to be wary.
As Champions, there are multiple important performance indicators where Celtic are already leading based on last season. But football is a game of fine margins. What improvements do Celtic need to make to give the best chance of continuing their domestic hegemony?
Shot selection
Hopefully we can all agree that shooting closer to goal is generally better than from further away. Expected goals has taught us that much.
In the SPFL, Celtic are only fifth-best for ratio of shots taken inside the box (per FotMob data).
Celtic actually did OK in terms of long-shot execution over the season. They scored 16 goals from 16.18 xG for outside-the-box shots. In the SPFL that fell to eight from 11.05 xG.
For those who reasonably argue “it’s a useful weapon to break down a packed defence” I’d concur... cautiously. Celtic's nearest rivals are slightly more patient with 70 per cent of all their shots coming from inside the box.
The Hoops should look to become best-in-class here and break 70 per cent next term. This requires a little more patience in build-up and better decisions, especially from central midfield.
Set-piece danger
Using Fotmob again we can see the expected goals generated from set-pieces per 90 minutes per team last term.
Celtic are second but mainly due to volume – that is, they will have more attacking set-pieces than any other team.
So, once again, this isn't “Celtic are bad" but “let’s be best-in-class”.
Celtic scored four goals from set-piece situations in the SPFL from 3.7 xG. It was noticeable they were quite creative with their free kicks (and corners). This was to mitigate a lack of height in the team and also the fact most opponents tend to be big lads.
This isn't advocating more “lumping it in’t mixer” but continuing to be creative in how set-plays are executed to stress the margins of these opportunities.
Cross completion
Celtic are taking more crosses into the box than ever before, but need to work on accuracy.
They are only the fourth best in terms of overall cross-completion accuracy. This is another category where the main rival leads the league.
Celtic are improving in this regard by focussing on more low, hard crosses from nearer the goal-line and less long, floaty high crosses. There are no right answers - just good and bad decisions and good and bad execution.
What they should look for is the wingers and full-backs increasing crossing from promising areas in a way that is compatible with the recipient. If it is Kyogo then low and firm. If it is Giakoumakis then basically any ball, any height in front of the goal.
High turnovers
Stats Perform defines high turnover as “the number of sequences that start in open play and begin 40 metres or less from the opponent's goal.”
This is an important essence of 'Ange-ball': win the ball as high up the pitch as possible and take advantage of a disorganised opponent.
Celtic had fewer high turnover in the league than Rangers, with four fewer shots resulting and one fewer goal at the end of it. You think I am nit-picking, don’t you? This is elite sport my lovelies! Every advantage counts. Rangers underperformed their xG by a total of around 14 goals last season. If they revert to the mean and perform similarly to last season with broadly the same players (not unreasonable) then Celtic will have another tight title race.
Maximising and improving in the areas the opponent is strong is therefore crucial. This will improve with better midfielders more suited to a high pressing game (not a strength of David Turnbull and Tom Rogic, for example). Also, a full season of Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda being in the frontline will improve these numbers.
Passes per defensive action
Building on pressing effectiveness, StatsPerform reports that “Celtic allowed opponents an average of just 9.2 open-play passes before making a defensive action in the Scottish Premiership last season. Across the top five European leagues in 2021-22, the only club to have a better average than this were Barcelona (9.0).”
This is impressive and a credit to how well Postecoglou has implemented his style in a short period.
This chart is from Stats Perform and is indicative of team style. It maps Passes Per Sequence and Direct Speed (metres / second). In other words, how quickly does a team get the ball forward yet maintain a high level of possession (control).
This is the panacea for Postecolgou – fast, attacking football with many direct aggressive forward passes, but with control. It really is the best of both Rodgers and Lennon’s styles.
What I want to see is Celtic move further to the left and higher. We have our “Season 1” benchmark.
Celtic must continue to improve in this regard. Likely they will as pressing organisation is a function of team cohesion, understanding, communication, spacing and shape. All improve the more a coach works on it and the same players grow together.
Clear opposition shots / opposition box passes
Turning to defending at the back. StatsBomb provides metrics on opposition clear shots (shots not under pressure) and opposition completed passes inside the box. Both are proxies for defensive organisation.
This is yet another metric that shows the large extent Hearts relied on Craig Gordon!
But back to the matter at hand, Celtic are again slightly trailing their rival in these metrics.
The Ranger’s defence has played together now for a number of seasons and with low squad turnover, there is a strong degree of understanding. Celtic’s back line, by contrast, was flung together last season and only really settled down after January.
I will be looking for Celtic to lead these metrics which will be indicative of stronger alignment, positioning, spacing, communication and organisation.
Summary
The takeaways from this are:
1. I’ve used four different data sources for this piece (FotMob, Stats Perform, StatsBomb and personal data). The world is very different in this regard from when I started. Dive in!
2. I am not nit-picking here. These are the small margins Celtic should strive to improve where the opponent is stronger. Such is the nature of elite sport.
3. The team cohesion underpins much of this. Organisation, familiarity. We learned last season that the more the manager spends on the training pitch, the better the team performs.
There is a long summer build-up to the first league game. Let’s check in on these metrics after some games are on the board to see if Celtic are improving at the margins.
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