How Ange Postecoglou's key Celtic players stack up against 2019-20 quadruple-treble winners

Last week’s column covered the team-level comparison, in which some of the differences between Ange Postecolglou and Neil Lennon’s sides were profiled. This is not an exercise to try to assign which player was/is ‘better’ but to simply compare performance contribution within the context of each team and their relative playing styles. 

Goalkeeper

Where else to begin but at the back? Quick reminder - all the data and radars cover only league games:

The radar reflected very comparable seasons by Joe Hart and Fraser Forster from a goal prevention perspective, as both saved roughly the amount as StatsBomb’s expected save model suggested they should have. Neither were particularly commanding of their boxes relative to claiming crosses and Hart was unsurprisingly asked to do more with his feet. Here was their relative on-ball value-centric (OBV) radars:

We can see in this OBV radar some indication of what we will call ‘utilisation fit.’

Hart’s overall goalkeeper OBV was lower than Forster’s which reflects the relative disparity in the impact of non-shot stopping facets of keeper play, such as coming for crosses, sweeping and handling (conceding rebounds off saves).

Despite higher volumes in ‘sweeper-keeper’ activities like passing and carrying, Hart’s OBV for those actions was comparable to Forster’s. In fact, Forster’s passing resulted in a higher amount of positive outcomes and deep progressions via him going long with his kicking. While not asked to go long nearly as much, Hart’s long kicking/throwing was actually very good. Advantage Forster - though much of it was likely due to Hart being asked to play in a style less suited for his skillset. 

Centre-back

The top-performing centre-backs on both sides are next:

Cameron Carter-Vickers carried each of the underlying OBV categories with one unsurprising exception: dribble and carry OBV.

Despite having a higher volume in carries, Kristoffer Ajer’s value in carrying out from the back was elite at a European level - a high benchmark. His ability to advance the ball into opposition territory coupled with his relatively low pass OBV reflected a relative dearth in being able to be creative once in those positions. His shot-related metrics were similarly underwhelming relative to Carter-Vickers’, with the American scoring at a similar rate despite less than half the rate of xG, a proxy for scoring opportunities.

Advantage Carter-Vickers - efficient and effective across the board. 

Defensive midfield

Next up, defensive midfield:

Warning signs of Scott Brown’s normal age-based decline were evident in the 2019-20 season and likely compounded by the role which he was asked to play. With the exception of his shooting, an issue chronicled earlier this season, McGregor was superior in a material way.

Advantage McGregor - quality over quantity defending, with better ball progression and passing.

READ MORE: Celtic's domestic dominance reinforced by cutting-edge statistic

Attacking midfield

We now move forward a stop to attacking midfield:

This radar comparison may be surprising to some, as Tom Rogic’s defensive action OBV was superior, while Ryan Christie’s creative and overall passing OBV was well ahead of Rogic.

Some nuanced understanding of the OBV metric can assist here, as players received larger hits to their defensive action OBV for things like fouling opponents or defensive errors when defending closer to their own penalty area.

With Christie more likely to track back, he’ll have been in positions to do more ‘negative’ things closer to his own penalty area. For example, Christie conceding a free-kick 25 yards from his own goal will have hit his defensive action OBV far more than Rogic fouling an opponent’s centre-back while pressing near their penalty area.

Even with that metric and context, the totality of each player’s performance levels indicate a clear conclusion. Advantage Christie - especially as his attacking output came within a team that produced about 10 per cent less in expected goals.

Winger

Our penultimate destination is high-profile wingers on loan:

Mohamed Elyounoussi may have arrived a couple of seasons early at Celtic; he could have been an ideal pressing forward in Ange Postecoglou’s 4-3-3.

As a relative percentage of each team’s overall attacking output, Jota and Elyounoussi were similar. Jota had a clear advantage with ball progression and creating chances for teammates, but Elyounoussi had superior attacking, finishing and defensive work.

Elyounoussi appeared in just over the equivalent of seven full games but his output for 2020-21 was comparable despite that iteration of Celtic performing far worse overall. However, availability to play is important which leaves another clear conclusion. Advantage Jota - an excellent overall level of performance.

Striker

Last, but certainly not least, striker:

Two really good players. Perhaps the two surprising metrics may be pass OBV and defensive action OBV given the reputations of each player.

We once again run into an availability issue given Kyogo Furuhashi’s extended absence due to injury this past season but his output when he did play was comparable with Odsonne Edouard’s in the 2019-2020 season.

Unsurprisingly, Edouard was a far more active dribbler and carrier of the ball, with Kyogo’s passing more efficient. However, given that the Frenchman's output was within a team which produced about 10 per cent lower xG and he was available to play a far greater amount, it's advantage Edouard... but the prospect of a full season of Kyogo playing in Postecoglou's system is very exciting. 

Conclusion

The ‘score’ for this exercise, which has been as much about having fun, turned out to be a 3-3 draw.

Forster, Christie and Edouard carry the day for the 2019-20 team with Carter-Vickers, McGregor and Jota doing the same for 2021-22 side.

We saw a small flash over last summer of how exciting Christie may have been in Postecoglou's team. Elyounoussi would likely have suited them as well.

Imagine the 2019-20 side with a more productive primary defensive midfielder like McGregor from this season? Or how fun would Jota have been to watch playing in a system more reliant upon individual creativity?