Less is more for Kyogo the killer: Furuhashi compared to Celtic strikers past and present

Based on the raw scoring numbers you couldn’t argue with that. Furuhashi has the equivalent of 20.22 matches of minutes and scored 16 goals.

His 0.79 goals per 90m scoring rate, if maintained, would better recent seasons from Moussa Dembele and Odsonne Edouard. We have to go back to the 15/16 season when Leigh Griffiths (remember him?) scored over 40 goals at 0.82 per 90m to find a higher rate.

Expected Scoring Contribution

There are tough expectations on a Celtic striker. Heading up a possession dominant side where the demands are to win every game, the Celtic striker needs to contribute high productivity in terms of goals and assists.

You know the drill by now – we look at Expected Goals and Assists as a truer reflection of underlying performance.

This plots Celtic strikers’ performances over the last 5 seasons and highlights Furuhashi from this.

The closer to the top right corner the better and we can see Furuhashi is already performing better than most. The high point in recent years was Edouard’s 19/20 season. His xG and xA profile were at an elite European level if you compared him to strikers AND number “10s”!

Edouard’s combined xG + xA that season was 1.23 per 90m. Furuhashi is currently 1.04.

The Japanese’s numbers are impressive but he doesn’t quite meet that high benchmark - so are the Larsson comparisons over the top?

Set Up For Success?

The staple of any striker to be productive would include a) taking lots of shots and b) getting into good positions to take those shots. The proxy for the latter is “Touches in the Box” – that is, how many times, per 90m, does the player have possession in the opposition’s penalty box.

Plotting Touches in the Box with Total Shots shows that, in recent times, Furuhashi has very low involvement compared to recent strikers Griffiths and Edouard. The Scotsman is known for high shot volume but relatively low build-up involvement, whilst the Frenchman was often seen wandering far outside the penalty box.

Yet both seem to be set up for striking success to a far greater degree than the Japanese.

I calculate an aggregated attacking metric called CAT Score – Celtic Attacking Threat score. It aggregates things like shots, touches in the box, chances created so is an attacking volume indicator.

CAT Score’s over the same period as above (Per 90m):

Ajeti’s score was over only 13.31 games worth of minutes last season. You can see Edouard’s greater overall involvement than Griffiths. But Furuhashi’s attacking threat indicator is by some way lower than his peer group.

'Packing' records forward passes both provided and received. For a striker it is mainly received and is a useful proxy for movement, finding space and ball control to take a forward pass.

Here are the Total Pack Scores (per 90m) in recent seasons:

Again, Edouard’s European Elite season 18/19 saw high levels of movement and availability to receive forward passes. As a sidebar, note that his 20/21 season is slightly behind that illustrating the fine margins separating “Elite” (19/20) from “Sulky” (20/21)!

Only Griffiths in 18/19 has less involvement in forward passing than Furuhashi this season.

Style and Substance

You may be thinking “but surely some of this pattern is down to playing style?” and you would be correct. It is a theme of Postecoglou’s Celtic that the central striker does not stray from the centre of the goal that much, and certainly does not link the play. Numbers in attack are supplemented by midfielders pushed on, full-backs supporting inside and wingers encouraged to get 1v1 against their opponent. The striker is there to finish things off.

If we look at Furuhashi’s performances through that prism, what does the data say about his effectiveness?

Opta defines a 'Big Chance' as “A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances”.

Bearing in mind Furuhashi does not take penalties (he doesn’t wear blue!), he is a clear leader in being on the end of Big Chances of recent strikers. We can also see this was not Edouard’s forte. But the ability to get on the end of such promising positions is a real stand out characteristic.

What happens once he gets on the end of such chances?

This plots Shot Accuracy (% of shots on target) and All Shot Conversion (% of all shots resulting in goals). We start to see the pattern that Griffiths, like Morelos, is a volume guy. His impressive numbers come from buying lots of lottery tickets.

Furuhashi is a real stand out so far. 55% of his shots are on target, and an astonishing 31% of them result in goals. Generally, at a team level, anything over 15% would be “good”.

The average for Celtic strikers in the last five seasons is about 18%. This is likely elite-level shot conversion capability. We shall see if it is sustainable.

Finally, this chart plots Possessions per Scoring Contribution (how many possessions of the ball for every goal or assists provided) and Final 3rd Effectiveness (% of possessions in the final that result in a shot, a completed pass or otherwise keeping the ball). In this chart, top left is best.

The man from Japan has the lowest number of touches per scoring contribution (28) and 57% of his possessions in the final third result in a positive outcome for Celtic (e.g. a shot, a pass completed, a corner).

What this shows is that Furuhashi is the Villanelle of recent Celtic strikers. He is consistently ruthless and efficient. A cold-hearted killer.

This doesn’t happen by mistake, of course. His planning is meticulous.

I’ll leave you with one last statistic.

The bunching of names shows that irrespective of style, each player has some characteristics that persist. No coach is going to stop Griffiths trying a ping from 30 yards, for example.

Furuhashi takes an astonishing 92% of his shots inside the box. Hint for kids – you will score more goals this way!

Summary

Based on pure volume, the case for Furuhashi being spoken of as the next Larsson seem fanciful. But to understand performance fully, you sometimes need to look at effectiveness and efficiency metrics as well.

Furuhashi is the ultimate rapier of strikers compared to those with a scattergun approach. The potential downside for Celtic is that, given his supreme efficiency, he will be attractive to top, middle and bottom of the table wealthy suitors alike. He’ll score given limited chances.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Let’s enjoy Kyogo the Killer.