Celtic's Liel Abada paradox: Winger with poacher's instinct but off-the-ball shortcomings - James Dailey

However, his performances at Celtic to date have been very interesting to analyse. During an initial investigation into Abada back in July, his raw performance statistics were ranked against 420 of his peers last season.

That analysis was conducted without footage of Abada playing and based on his data profile alone. Data and metrics are, however, just one component and both scouting and video analysis remain important. After reviewing footage of his time at Celtic the impression is that the Israeli remains a quixotic player.

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Firstly, Abada's attacking output has been excellent in both league and European games. Here are attacking radars for, firstly, Premiership and then Europa League games to date:

It appears Abada may have a knack for being at the right place at the right time in a poacher’s sort of way and he has also delivered some very good passes and crosses at times to create chances for team-mates.

Next up, defending and pressing radars:

Here we see that Abada’s been active but not very effective or efficient with his defensive and pressing actions domestically and that those deficiencies have not translated well at a Europa League level.

For example, his percentiles for defensive regains and pressure regains are low single digits, and he’s yet to register a counter-pressure regain.

With Jota having arrived as well this summer, he offers a natural basis for comparison. Here are their two radars for domestic games to date:

Besides being two years Abada’s senior, Jota has largely matched his attacking output while also offering far more when it comes to defending and pressing.

To further examine the pressing metrics, as Ange Postecoglou’s system is heavily reliant upon an aggressive high press, here are some simple efficiency metrics using StatsBomb data to create this table:

The table ranks each player among their 14 peers in the league who have played at least 300 minutes so far this season. For example, Abada has the second-highest possession-adjusted pressures while Jota has the fifth-highest.

These again show the significant level of activity by Abada, which is to suggest he appears to be working hard to implement his manager’s instructions and system.

However, he has not been terribly efficient at doing so, with his percentage regain metrics in the lower half of his peer group at domestic level. This intuitively makes sense given how poorly those skills have adapted in stepping up to Europa League level, as shown in the prior radar.

Given the paucity of squad options, perhaps the biggest question will be whether James Forrest is able to get back to consistent fitness after injury troubles over the past year and at what level he may return.

For some context, these radars compare the 2019-2020 iteration of Forrest playing in Neil Lennon’s side with Abada in Postecoglou’s higher-pressing system:

Similar to Jota, the 2019-2020 version of Forrest largely matched Abada’s excellent attacking output so far at Celtic.

The defending and pressing radar offers some interesting contrast as Forrest, who has hardly been known for his defensive prowess or physicality, was about on par with Abada’s output despite significantly lower engagement. For example, Forrest had slightly higher counter-pressure regains at 0.15 versus Abada at 0.13, despite engaging in less than half the counter-pressing actions per 90 minutes.

Both players present interesting questions and challenges relative to the manager's high-pressing system, with the lower sections of the “Jenga tower” referenced in this column including a less than optimized midfield, back four, and keeper.

Are Abada’s potentially excellent poacher skills a luxury that can be afforded while playing with likely either David Turnbull or Tom Rogic? What performance level will Forrest return to, given not only his recent injury challenges but also having reached the age of 30, which is already well into a normal ageing curve for his position?

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The primary analytical conclusion from that relatively brief initial review of Abada’s performance data in Israel last season was concern over whether his athleticism would translate into effective play outside of goal scoring.

After his initial stretch with Celtic, those concerns largely remain. Hopefully, Forrest is able to return to fitness and perform close to his 28-year-old self, which would offer more ball security and less vulnerability to being exposed to defensive transitions in the midfield.

That scenario could also afford Abada more time to continue his development while adding valuable, and badly-needed, attacking depth to the bench in the process.