Celtic’s opponents this Sunday, Livingston FC, are winless and bottom of the league table so far this season. However, they have achieved back to back top six finishes and Almondvale Stadium has been a tricky place to visit for the Hoops with no victories there since Livi returned to the top flight. Davie Martindale’s side have had a high turnover of players and are deliberately transitioning away from always being the underdog in terms of their playing style. Have they lost their identity - and what made them such a tough opponent - in the process or will they still be a test in Ange Postecoglou’s first visit to the Tony Macaroni Arena?

Last season’s incredible achievements for Livingston - including a run of 14 matches unbeaten in all competitions, a trip to Hampden Park for the League Cup final and an eventual sixth-place finish in the Premiership - led Martindale to the belief that his side needed to evolve. In his view, other teams started to approach games with Livi differently, being more likely to sit in and challenge the Lions to find a way to open them up instead of allowing them to rely on directness, winning second balls and capitalising on set pieces.

The most obvious way in which Livingston have transitioned away from setting up as the underdog has been a change in formation. In each of their five Scottish Premiership matches so far this season Martindale has deployed a 4-3-3 instead of the 3 at the back system which was used for Celtic’s visit in January 2021 and for much of the 2020/21 season.

Celtic Way:

Celtic Way:

It is likely that Livingston will persevere with the 4-3-3 this Sunday but there is a feeling among some of their fans that their playing style is now too passive out of possession, it is too easy to create chances against them and that this hasn’t really been offset by improved creativity. The underlying statistics certainly do point to some issues but there are two caveats to consider first. Last season Livi didn’t win a league match until the sixth attempt before, of course, going on to very good things. Secondly, the schedule hasn’t been kind to them as they have faced three of last season’s top six in the first five matches of this season.

Celtic Way:

This season Livingston have the fourth-worst Expected Goals difference in the league, creating the third-lowest xG per game and conceding the fourth-most xG per game. A particularly alarming stat, given Martindale’s desire to find more ways to beat more teams, is that they have created the least xG from open play of all twelve teams in the division.

However, the most significant change from last season is the number of shots that they are conceding. In 2020/21 Livi conceded an average of 9.39 shots per match but this term they are shipping an average of 15.80 every 90 minutes. Isn’t that just due to their tough schedule and the quality of opponents they’ve faced so far?

Well, newly promoted Dundee managed to take 21 shots against them in their most recent fixture. A further concern for the Lions, and an opportunity for Celtic, is in the detail of the types of shots which they are conceding. This season Livi are conceding almost double the amount of shots from open play compared to last season and they are conceding the most High Press shots in the division. These are shots which result from Livingston losing possession of the ball, in their own half, within five seconds of an opposition pressure, tackle, interception or block. Sounds a lot like a type of shot which Postecoglou’s style of play is designed to create!

Celtic Way:

Celtic Way:

Livingston do make the most pressures and the second most aggressions - a stat which measures the proportion of opposition pass recipients which are tackled, pressured or fouled within two seconds of receiving the ball - in the league this season but, as can be seen in the above visualisations, much of their defensive activity is in deeper areas than it was previously and often they are having to repeat attempts to win possession therefore potentially registering quantity as opposed to quality.

Livingston have had a very high turnover of players recently and have made some interesting recruitment moves, with Martindale attempting to reduce the age of the squad and ensure that players have a clear pathway into the team and, ideally, a pathway out to greater things. Goalkeeper Max Stryjek has improved his off-field professionalism and has good positional awareness and fine shot-stopping abilities while at the top end of the pitch former Aberdeen player Bruce Anderson is managing almost two shots per match with an average xG per shot of 0.14.

However, there are personnel which Celtic could attempt to exploit in this match. James Penrice can play in multiple positions on the left flank but has most recently played at full-back and, while he is a promising youngster, he can be susceptible during intense situations - completing less than half of his passes when pressed by an opponent. At centre back Jack Fitzwater has won only 58% of his aerial duels both this season and last, contrasting quite significantly with former teammate and defensive stalwart Jon Guthrie’s 68% win rate in the air.

Celtic Way:

August recruit Stephane Omeonga is finally in Scotland as his work permit nears approval but so far this season Jason Holt has often played as the deepest midfielder and he makes very few tackles and only plays 21% of his passes forwards. Pressing the midfield and fullbacks, getting the ball wide and creating chances from crosses is a fruitful tactic for Livingston’s opponents generally and, of course, is a tried and tested method for Celtic this season under Postecoglou.

Whether it's the plastic pitch, individual work-rate or the analytical smarts of the opposition manager, Livingston is often one of the toughest trips of the season for Celtic. However, the early stages of the Lions' evolution might risk a loss of some of the elements which previously made them so formidable and offer some opportunities for the Hoops tomorrow.