FC Midtjylland: Celtic's Champions League foes analysed ahead of second leg

Last week's first leg in Glasgow ended 1-1 but that far from told the whole story as the Hoops came flying out the traps and looked in good shape for a winning start to the season before Nir Bitton's sending-off changed proceedings.

Even then, a man down, they made a good fist of things but an error from goalkeeper Vasilis Barkas conspired to send the tie to a winner-takes-all affair at the MCH Arena.

Here, The Celtic Way delves a bit deeper into Bo Henriksen's men as the Hoops bid to grab a confidence-boosting win early in Postecoglou's tenure.

How have FC Midtjylland fared this season?

Since the first-leg draw in the east end of Glasgow, Midtjylland secured their first win of the season by beating Aalborg 1-0 away from home thanks to a Junior Brumado strike.

In that match they initially set up in what seemed to be a 3-4-3 but in practice ended up a slightly more conservative 5-4-1 formation. They ceded much of the possession (62%) to Aalborg but, given three of the home side’s top four passing combinations were some mixture of the goalkeeper and two centre-backs, it bothered Midtjylland very little to be playing without the ball for much of the match.

Indeed, Midtjylland peppered the Aalborg goal with 14 shots (1.32 xG) throughout the match and limited the hosts to just three shots (0.5 xG). For reference, Celtic registered 16 shots with an xG of 2.93 during the first leg last week.

Midtjylland manager Bo Henriksen acknowledged this change in emphasis for the Aalborg win, his first in charge of the club.

“The victory came because we were very good defensively,” he told the club website after the game. “Our base was far better than what we have seen so far, and that also meant that AaB created almost nothing.”

Of course, before that first leg at Parkhead Midtjylland opened their Danish SuperLiga season with a 2-1 home defeat against OB, so while their preparations for Glasgow were rocked by an unexpected defeat and a transfer request (more on that later) the inverse is true for Wednesday’s match; they could be feeling confident once again.

How are they expected to line up?

In the first leg Midtjylland tried to match up with Celtic’s 4-3-3 and only changed to a 4-4-1 after Anders Dreyer’s sending off in the 56th minute. They may have equalised 10 minutes later but, in truth, the Hoops were the better side and would have been out of sight on another day so those two banks of four may not be something to ponder on too much.

After their success with the 3-4-3/5-4-1 against Aalborg, Henriksen may opt to go with the same again for Celtic’s visit. If so, chances are veteran right-back Henrik Dalsgaard likely slips into the back three alongside former Celt Erik Sviatchenko and recent signing Juninho.

Given, however, that this is a home knockout match and Midtjylland’s away goal does not come into play as it once would have, the likelihood of them reverting to type and going 4-3-3 from the start could well increase.

READ MORE: What players will Ange Postecoglou pick for Celtic in CL qualifier versus FC Midtjylland?

Regardless of which formation they go with from the first whistle, there are a few certainties – save, of course, for last-minute injuries.

Jonas Lossl will start between the sticks, with Sviatchenko, Dalsgaard and Evander sure to be involved as well. None of the four have missed a second of Midtjylland’s opening three matches so far. Left winger Pione Sisto isn’t far off having played every minute either, while Paulinho and Junior Brumado are virtual stick-ons to feature from the start too.

Mikael Anderson has embraced a change of position from left wing to central midfield well and could start for the second time against the Hoops. In addition, Dreyer’s suspension opens the door for the likes of Joel Andersson – who started alongside him against Aalborg – and Awer Mabil.

Who are their main danger men and how will they try to hurt Celtic?

A fall-out between Henriksen and striker Sory Kaba led to a suspension for the striker. In his place up top is the match-winner against Aalborg, Brumado.

However, the 22-year-old has yet to show a clinical edge in front of goal and has just 12 goals and three assists in 82 matches to date.

Despite his 6ft 3in frame, Brumado tends to do most of his work outside the box during the course of the game. He has a propensity to drift out right and, indeed, his heatmap against Celtic in the first leg demonstrates this (as does his lack of shots – none to be exact, though in his defence the team did manage only three in total).

That said, he did score an important goal against Aalborg and took on more shots – four – during that match.

Which brings me on to the next point: expect them to shoot more.

Midtjylland were uncharacteristically shot-shy during the first leg. Some of that was due to the Celtic defence standing up to the task well but the raw numbers alone suggest a similar performance in front of goal probably won’t happen again, especially in Denmark.

Junior Brumado started as a centre forward against Celtic but has a tendency to drift out to the right

The first leg against Celtic last week was one of just two matches since the beginning of last season in which Midtjylland mustered only four shots or less. The other was in a 2-1 Danish Cup loss to OB back in January. And remember, this is the guts of the same side that faced the likes of Liverpool, Atalanta and Ajax in Europe last term, so the chances of a repeat display are surely slim.

And the danger, as always with Celtic recently, is at the back. Young central defenders Stephen Welsh and Dane Murray were given a torrid time by West Ham’s Michail Antonio on Saturday but will hopefully have a quieter night in store against Brumado this time round.

Behind them Barkas continues to suffer public lapses of concentration while, at right-back, Anthony Ralston is full of running but not much else. On the other flank, it remains to be seen whether Greg Taylor – a serviceable left-back in the traditional sense – can adjust to the type of hybrid, ball-playing role Postecoglou requires.

What will Celtic need to do to win?

Is it too obvious to say Celtic just need to take their chances this time?

Easier said than done, granted, but there are plenty of grounds for optimism after last week’s display.

Aside from Liel Abada’s goal, Ryan Christie hit the post, Callum McGregor hit the bar and Odsonne Edouard passed up a chance that, while not a 'sitter', was nonetheless one he'll be disappointed to have missed.

As already mentioned, Postecoglou’s men were out in front in terms of xG (2.93 vs 0.21) during the first leg and even in the recent 6-2 friendly defeat to West Ham had no trouble stringing some sumptuous attacking play together.

So if the Hoops bring anywhere near the same level of offensive fortitude in the second leg, they should be fine.

The key for Celtic could be how well the defence, in particular, responds to being given a bit of a lesson by West Ham on Saturday.

Postecoglou said after that match his players must remember to compete as well as carry out instructions.

"We are at that funny stage where I am trying to teach the players to play the game a certain way," said the Celtic boss.

"The football was a priority but we forgot to compete.

"This is when your belief gets tested and I can't shield them from criticism.

"When you represent this football club and things haven't gone well and you have to react in a positive way."

Wednesday night in Denmark would be the perfect time for the players to show Postecoglou just how much they want to compete.

Statistics referenced in this article are from WyScout unless otherwise noted