Packing is a concept I capture data for manually from each Celtic game and isn’t available from any of the data vendors.

Here is the formal explainer by the German company that “invented” the concept. And here is a very nice and simple explainer from an account called busi1325. Note that the concept can be extended to the outcomes from turnovers and recoveries too. Does it matter?

Packing trends

Well, here is Celtic’s record since I have been collecting packing data (since 2017) where they have the higher or lower overall team pass packing score. I focus on pack passing as this is the most prevalent type of packing activity.

Where Celtic have a higher pack passing score than the opposition, they win 79 per cent of the points (assume three points for a win across all matches for all competitions). The average goal difference in those matches is 2.42 – 0.73 in Celtic’s favour. Where the opposition has a higher pack passing score, Celtic only wins 26 per cent of the available points and the average goal difference each game is 1.05 – 2.19. Where the pass packing scores are close, between positive and negative 50 difference, Celtic wins 51 per cent of the available points and the average goal difference is 1.48 – 1.33.

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So, there is a case for saying the team that wins the pass packing battle has a stronger possibility of scoring more goals and winning.

Defenders packed

When scoring packing in a match, a defender bypassed scores the highest with three points awarded to the pack passer/receiver/dribbler. When we count defenders packed only, we get a similar pattern.

Celtic’s points percentage rises to 85 per cent when they pack more defenders than the opposition. When they pack less, the points percentage reduces to 47 per cent. Where the packing scores for defenders are close, Celtic win 67 per cent of the available points.

The derby case study

All that preamble was hopefully informative! I wanted to bring the discussion back to the derby from the prior weekend. In the first half with a strong wind assisting, Celtic set up to play counter-attacking football. Knowing this was a ‘must-win’ for the home side, Celtic hoped to get their very fast front three engaged early and directly, taking advantage of the Rangers full-back's propensity to get forward, and the relative lack of pace in the two centre-backs Connor Goldson and John Souttar.

At half-time, Rangers had the higher packing score overall – 176 to 166. However, it was Celtic who had packed 18 defenders to five by the home side. The most common pack passes were Goldson to James Tavernier (three) and Souttar to left-back Dujon Sterling (twice and one to Sterling from Goldson). The Rangers midfield managed eight pack passes between them. Once the ball went wide to the full-backs, it was either a fruitless long ball or possession was turned over (three times each by Tavernier and Fabio Silva).

However, Celtic were able to take the home side defenders out of the game. Reo Hatate (five defenders), and Matt O’Riley (seven) were the main protagonists. Four chances were created by taking defenders out of the game. So, despite the overall packing score being in the home side's favour, the passes that were executed and scored packing points were in relatively safe areas of the pitch, and most often did not disrupt the Celtic backline. Even in the second half, the defender's packed score was 11-7 in Celtic’s favour. The expected onslaught did not materialise until the 80th minute when poor Celtic substitution choices led to chance-creating errors.

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The overall packing score in the end was 371 to 243 for the home side. Goldson was by far the highest-pack pass scorer with 83. Only one chance was created from a pack pass – and that from a free kick. Indeed, it was set pieces (and my goodness didn’t John Beaton gift a huge amount of those) and penalty box chaos from long balls that were the worry for Celtic.

Clement claimed the ‘moral’ victory and Rangers could even put the ‘Packing Trophy’ in their cup room, but by digging deeper and looking at defenders packed, and chances created from pack passes, we see Celtic had the edge despite failing to hold on for victory.

Next time, perhaps!