A windswept derby was tumultuous for many reasons and ended in a 3-3 draw for Celtic and Rangers

A visitor from Mars casually observing the post-match interviews would be forgiven for thinking there had been some incredible home victory as Philippe Clement recounted a rousing tale of “moral victory” as if some ancient religious crusade had been completed. This match was one where very little was as it seemed…

A 'game of two halves'

On a simplistic level, with Celtic ‘winning’ the first half 2-0, and losing the second 1-3, that seems an appropriate cliché to deploy.

The reality was a little more surprising. It is rare for professional football to be influenced so much by weather conditions. These players are supreme athletes. Playing into a strong wind is no more than an inconvenience to such strong leg muscles and attuned lung power. Sunday was a bright day, but the remnants of Storm Kathleen were the latest in more extreme weather that is becoming more common as the climate changes.

AKA it blew a hooly!

Celtic had the wind at their backs in the first half. This served to support the game plan of getting the ball quickly, early, and in behind the advancing home side full-backs and onto the relatively slow Rangers centre-backs.

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A clearance from goalkeeper Joe Hart in the first few seconds of the match caught out captain Tavernier whose Achilles heel isn’t ground speed but defensive concentration. Despite a five-yard start, Daizen Maeda closed him down and the discombobulated Tavernier’s clearance rocketed off the Japanese past an equally started Jack Butland.

Celtic were not interested in build-up but rather to press and harry mistakes and then get it forward as soon as possible. It was a game plan out of the Jose Mourinho back catalogue – let them have the ball, make mistakes, and then counter at speed.

Kyogo Furuhashi tempted the centre backs out with continual runs into the 10 space, leaving the flanks open for Maeda and Nicolas Kuhn to run into. The home side centre-backs fell back onto their box in a ragged defensive alignment.

Meanwhile, Rangers’ default game plan of longer passes up the channels or to Cyriel Dessers was a technically difficult exercise in such conditions. It was quite easy to defend and with Fabio Silva and Scott Wright inverting, there was little width or variety to the rare attacking forays.

One would think that with Rangers pushing up in the second half and Celtic, protecting a lead, falling back nearer their box, this would result in incessant pressure from the home team. Incessant aerial bombardment, yes, but to what end?

The wind is unforgiving when you are attempting high straight aerial passes, and it gets caught on her tendrils. Ball after ball flew out the pitch or to Joe Hart – he averages 6.46 recoveries per 90 minutes but had 14 here.

 

Celtic dropped very deep in the second half as one might expect when defending a two-goal lead. We’ll cover Celtic’s tactical missteps in the second half later. Rangers completed 27 of 86 attempted long balls and their inability to adapt to the conditions was as much a factor as they attempted to implement Plan A more, wind-assisted, and a bit faster.

Game state

Rangers have not been ahead at any point in the three derbies so far, and the game state has a major impact on the approach of both sides.

Defending a two-goal lead as Celtic have done in two matches, is a very different mindset from chasing down that lead. With points dropped against the rest of a poor-quality league at a minimum, getting the spoils in the derby is imperative. You must go all in. Here is the xG per team per game state.

When the matches are level, Celtic generates the bulk of the expected goal contribution. Rangers then generate the majority of the xG when chasing the champions. It is a fascinating phenomenon. Clement does not need any introduction to begin talking about the mentality of his team.

A cynic might note he doth protest too much.  Is it to be nobler of the mind to fail to threaten your opponent when the spoils are all in front of you and the scores are level? Or in the frenetic attempts to claw back a deficit, when madmen lead the blind, is that where mentality shines in a weary world? (ok, I’ll stop now). The game state does strange things to a team’s mind!

Rabbi Matondo’s goal was an undoubted thing of skill and beauty. But it was a rare sight indeed in that second half.

Whilst the incredible decision by John Beaton to allow Nick Walsh to re-referee Fabio Silva’s dive in the box without reference to Alistair Johnston’s successful touch on the ball gave the home crowd and team hope, it didn’t change the overall malaise. Tavernier’s inevitable penalty was Rangers' ONLY shot at goal between the 45th and 80th minutes.

The ‘game of two halves’ trope is a slight fallacy. They generated a Celtic-assisted and deflected first equaliser and worldly second in the last section of the match off 0.81 xG. Supreme mentality?

Celtic Missteps

Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers was also quite pleased with things at full-time. Consensus was a draw suits Celtic before the match although most mainstream commentators had forgotten that by the end.

Rodgers was also pleased his side had stood up to a partisan crowd, being pelted with objects, a must-win opponent and generally being written off beforehand. But losing a two-goal lead and then a one-goal lead with moments to go, must sting.

The key midfield area was stricken with risk for Rodgers. We saw a delightful cameo 65 minutes from Reo Hatate at Livingston but in truth, he was struggling physically after 45 minutes. The captain was back! Callum McGregor had trained the prior week, or at least on Friday and was on the bench. Rodgers signposted at least 30 minutes from the man the opposition feared.

Hatate was in from the start and had a mixed time of it. He led the team with eight pack passes and managed four shots from outside the box, a couple of which had Butland scrambling. But he was 0-4 on turnovers to recoveries and brought pressure on his side losing the ball in poor areas. He again looked laboured immediately after halftime and it was the captain Rodgers turned to after 65 minutes.

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I was surprised by how hampered McGregor looked. A couple of tracking runs, especially against the equally tiring Mohamed Diomande, signalled that he was not quite recovered from the calf injury. Indeed, McGregor’s most telling contributions came after 86 minutes when he passed blindly across the front of his box setting in train the events leading to Abdullah Sima’s shot deflecting on of his shoulder and into the top corner of Hart’s net.

It was McGregor’s pack pass to Paolo Bernardo that led to Adam Idah’s 87th-minute goal, but that and one other forward pass were the only highlights for McGregor. The more defensively dependable, but crucially wholly fit, Bernardo would probably have been the better bet as the first midfield sub.

The same 65th minute saw Nicolas Kuhn withdraw, and Yang Hyun-Jun was introduced. The South Korean can be brilliant but can also resemble a teenager thrown into the adult game. This day more resembled the latter. He completed just four of his nine attempted passes and lost possession three times. He butchered two promising in-box opportunities. And his part in not anticipating or in any way being ready for McGregor’s cross-field pass exacerbated the lead-up to their second goal.

His worst moment came at the end, failing to anticipate Matondo cutting onto his favourite right foot, exactly as he had done in the previous match against Hibernian, and having the time and space to fire the equaliser (or winner if you are Clement). Yang offered no protection at that critical moment. Hindsight is perfect but would James Forrest, very safe in possession and hugely experienced in these matches, have offered a more solid solution for Celtic when one goal ahead and Rangers struggling to threaten?

Summary

So, it really wasn't what it seemed. Celtic did not lose; it was - in fact - a draw. They played the wind advantage more intelligently, and the perceived second-half onslaught featured no shots at goal for 35 minutes bar a ludicrous penalty.

Rodgers might reflect his substitutions did nothing to help his side see out their advantage.