History tells us Celtic are further ahead of Rangers than many realise

This is where using statistics becomes very interesting. What you must always do, of course, is layer context on top of the raw data.

The question of how big the gap is is a salutary lesson in this truism.

Dominant Celtic and the data

Five derbies this season have seen four Celtic wins and one draw. Two of those ties have been at the neutral Hampden Park. An aggregate scoreline of 12-5 in the Champions’ favour further suggests a dominance for the Hoops. 

Yet delving into the more detailed match data gives a potentially different picture.

Despite the 12-5 goal difference, the xG model suggests Celtic are a mere one goal better across the five ties. Indeed, in three of the ties, the single-game xG was greater for Rangers.

The above shows the number of shots in total each side has generated per game and the total number of possessions of the ball within the opposition box.

In general, Celtic are trending down on both metrics over time, while Rangers have been quite consistent across the matches. There certainly is not a gulf between the teams, it seems. If we consider simple possession metrics, a further trend emerges.

Rangers had most of the ball despite losing 0-4 at Celtic Park, and under Mickey Beale, have had increasing possession culminating in slight ball dominance in the recent semi-final.

Similarly, if we consider Celtic’s final third effectiveness – the percentage of occasions that they are within the opposition's final third and generate a shot, win a corner or throw or otherwise maintain possession, there is a steady decline in Celtic’s effectiveness.

Despite a big upturn in the League Cup Final, a match Beale is reckoned to have miscalculated as regards his initial line up, the trend is similarly downward for Celtic as regards the average shot quality per effort they are generating.

READ MORE: The Celtic revolution is over but the evolution has just begun

The above surely points to not only a small gap between the sides but a diminishing one?

The Importance of Game state

Game state refers to the scoreline at the time of an event. A simple example to illustrate the importance. 

Celtic are leading by all attacking metrics against Rangers at half-time as they coast to a 3-0 lead in September. In the second half, Rangers have most of the possession and the shots at goal. Celtic, comfortable in their virtually unassailable lead, are content to play more pragmatically due to the game state dictating they have no need to aggressively chase further goals. 

Celtic have held the lead in four of the five ties this season. In three of the matches, they have held two or more goal leads. This game state means there is less pressure on the side leading to press for further goals. Their attacking metrics may dry up, relatively, and providing there is not incessant pressure on their own goal, the leading team may be content to play conservatively and handle ball possession against.

This leads us to the close cousin – context.

Context and Rangers' Greater need

It is arguable that Rangers have needed to win each of the derbies this season to a greater extent than Celtic. Of course, Celtic are desperate to win, but the nuances are important to understand where the pressure lies.

September 3rd 2022 – Celtic 4, Rangers 0

Having surrendered a lead to lose the title the previous season and in losing vital derbies in the league, the onus was on Rangers and Giovanni van Bronckhorst to put down a marker in the first clash of the season to show that this time they were more than challengers to regain the title.

The game was over by half-time as Celtic took advantage of poor Rangers defending (a reoccurring theme) to cruise to a 3-0 going into the break. The Scottish champions did not need to press hard to win the match.

January 2nd 2023 – Rangers 2, Celtic 2

Beale’s derby debut. Rangers are nine points behind in the league as the entertain their rivals at home. It’s simply a must-win – for the title and for Beale as the new manager.

As Postecoglou revealed before the match, several Celtic players had been stricken down by a bug in the week prior. Some did not make it, Jota was on the bench. Alistair Johnston had to make his debut. It seemed Beale might be a 'lucky general' as the variances fell in his favour.

But Rangers could not get it done. They couldn’t see out a 2-1 lead as Kyogo Furuhashi claimed a late equalizer. Despite a poor overall Celtic performance, Postecoglou looked delighted at the end of the match. He knew the context and how hampered his team was yet came away with the league lead unscathed.

26th February 2023 – Celtic 2, Rangers 1 – League Cup Final

Celtic’s lead in the league is looking unassailable. But Beale has a chance to win his first trophy. This would be a massive confidence boost to the supporters and the club in him, and for the players, a belief that Celtic could be reigned in and another Cup could follow in June.

Beale picked a muscular but pedestrian midfield. Mooy and Hatate were able to bypass with ease, and further dozy defending allowed Kyogo to establish a two-goal lead.

Rangers pulled one back, but by the last ten minutes, it looked as if Celtic were the ones that would add a third on the break.

8th April 2023 – Celtic 3, Rangers 2

The last chance to put a dent into Celtic’s league lead. Another must win for the Light Blues.

Celtic largely controlled the first half then due to more defensive calamity, eased into a two-goal lead. James Tavernier almost single-handedly pulled his side level, but in reality, it was another match were the home side were able to ease away without needing to be near their best.

30th April 2023 – Celtic 1, Rangers 0 – Scottish Cup semi-final

The league has gone, and there is one trophy left for Beale to prove his value.

Not only that but defeat also leaves Celtic two wins away from a record eighth treble. It is simply unthinkable that Rangers should lose this one. Once again, all the pressure and need to win to greater at Ibrox.

Despite this desperation, the latest in defensive mishaps gifts Celtic a goal, and despite many crosses into the box and long shots, Celtic can manage out the game such that there was minimal jeopardy once more in the closing stage.

Lessons from the 90s

Celtic supporters of my age will not remember most of the 1990s fondly as regards the football.

Celtic were run into the ground by a board lacking funds and vision. Although Fergus McCann initiated a rebuild, he did it properly by focussing on infrastructure and sustainability over assets on the pitch.

READ MORE: How Carl Starfelt’s understated Celtic heroics helped defeat Rangers

The result was many trophy-less years and derby heartache. Between McCann’s reign starting in 1994 and the end of the century, Celtic won five of 28 ties against Rangers. Despite this, the aggregate goals for and against were a relatively tight 29-41. Many games were very close.

Celtic fought tooth and nail in virtually every tie because their need was greater. But ultimately, they failed most of the time. Why? They were up against a team with greater resources.

Whilst Celtic had attacking talent like Paolo Di Canio, Pierre van Hooijdonk and Jorge Cadete with Paul McStay and John Collins in midfield, they also had the likes of Gordon Marshall in goal and Malky Mackay in defence.

Rangers had great attackers such as Ally McCoist, Mark Hateley, Brian Laudrup and Paul Gascoigne, but also a steely spine with the likes of Iain Ferguson, John Brown, Richard Gough and of course Andy Goram.

Celtic dominated many matches in that time by the stats but ultimately usually fell short. They simply had inferior players.

Similar to Celtic supporters in the 1990s, those of Rangers will be hoping that the gap is not too great and that the closeness of the stats suggests a toss-of-the-coin season in 2023/24.

But Rangers’ need has been greater in every tie this season, and although they have increasingly been able to stifle Celtic’s attacking threat, a mixture of defensive calamity and attacking bluntness has meant the Hoops have ultimately triumphed in a style that may seem more pragmatic.

Celtic simply have better players and will become increasingly better resourced as the McCann legacy gathers pace.