Martin Boyle to Celtic £3m transfer assessed: Does it actually make sense?

Hibernian winger Martin Boyle has been one of the standout names in the Premiership for a couple of years now and recently bagged a Hampden hat-trick to send the Hibees into the League Cup final, where they lost 2-1 to Celtic.

The 28-year-old's pace and scoring record - he has 14 goals and five assists already this season - have now led to reports linking him with a move from Leith to the east end of Glasgow.

But would the Australia international fit in at Parkhead and, more pertinently, would it actually be a worthwhile move on Celtic's part given the wing options already available to Ange Postecoglou? 

Let's take a look...

Pros

Known quantity and a consistent performer at SPFL level

While Boyle joined Hibs during their time in the second tier, to his credit he has done his best work in the top flight.

Filtering the data to consider the games he has played at the top club level available to him since arriving at Hibs – that is to say, in the Premiership, Scottish Cup, League Cup and in European ties – his consistency shines through.

He is, arguably, somewhat underrated technically due to the fact his speed tends to dominate any discussion of his talents; his effective dribbling is reflected in his top-five ranking in StatsBomb’s dribble and carry OBV metric.

In addition, his blistering pace and direct attitude could conceivably mesh well when Celtic play in what are generally more open games in Europe.

Ange Postecoglou has spoken highly of him before

"I know Martin really well," Postecoglou said back in October. “I was pretty pleased when he chose to play for Australia because there was a bit of an arm wrestle when it came to who he was going to play for.

"He's done really well for the national team so I'm well aware of him. He's a good player and it's not easy playing for Australia.

"Unlike other national teams, he's got to do long-haul travel and getting back to this part of the world isn't easy. So he's handled that really well."

Does that amount to actually wanting him in his squad at Parkhead? Maybe. Maybe not.

A bit of versatility

The high-intensity nature of Celtic’s style will, in all likelihood, continue to take its toll but one of the ways Postecoglou can limit how much it impacts the team on a game-by-game basis is by having quality players who can fill more than one role at his disposal.

Liel Abada has already proven his worth in this way with his stint as a central striker during the simultaneous absences of Kyogo Furuhashi, Giorgos Giakoumakis and Albian Ajeti while, elsewhere in the team, Callum McGregor has shifted around the midfield berths all season and Josip Juranovic has played both full-back roles.

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Boyle is primarily a right winger but has occasionally played wing-back and has put in a fair amount of work centrally too. Indeed, he has played more than a full league season’s worth of minutes up front since 2015-16 according to WyScout. His raw stats in that position are decent: 3,597 minutes (the equivalent of about 41 matches), 18 goals (16.9 xG), six assists (7.1 xA).

Cons

His age and the reported transfer fee

Celtic may well be going down a recruitment route that targets more first-team-ready players than projects but Boyle is 28 years old, about to turn 29 in April, and under contract until the summer of 2024 so he is not a particularly buyer-friendly target.

Further to that, The Times has reported Hibs are looking for around £3million for him. That is pretty large for a domestic transfer fee for a winger who will soon be pushing 30 and will have virtually no resale value – at that point it becomes a question of if a likely rotation piece can make £3million worth of contributions in his expected two-to-four years of first-team involvement at Parkhead?

Doesn’t solve Celtic’s low-block issues

What Boyle offers in terms of speed, directness and eye for goal is certainly an asset but a player of that profile is unlikely to solve the problem Celtic have in breaking down stubborn low-blocks in domestic games.

Additionally, given the fee being reported, he is not going to come in to compete with Mikey Johnston and the likes of Karamoko Dembele for fringe minutes, but with the established players.

With that in mind, above is a comparison table between Boyle and Celtic’s three main first-team wingers, Jota, Daizen Maeda and James Forrest. It considers Boyle’s game-time playing as a winger for Hibs since their promotion to the top-flight, so Forrest, Maeda and Jota’s data comes from the same time span and positional constraints.

He keeps pace with them in a few categories but falls short in others which ultimately brings us back to the valuation question – does it amount to a fair price for a player who probably doesn’t figure in the starting XI reckoning regularly and provides another obstacle in the youth wingers’ path to the first team?

Verdict

There is no doubt Boyle is an impactful player, especially at SPFL Premiership level. He could potentially be a useful addition in a squad fighting on three fronts but, for the fee being reported, it's probably just not worth it with everything else going on at the club recruitment-wise in this window.