Celtic’s right-back situation has been thrown into fresh uncertainty by Julian Araujo’s injury, leaving Martin O’Neill to choose between youth and experience at a critical stage of the season, while awaiting the managed return of Alistair Johnston. Analyst Stewart Ross examines the best way forward.
Injuries have defined much of Celtic’s turbulent season, and the latest setback to Julian Araujo ensures that theme will continue into the closing weeks of the campaign.
The Mexico international is facing seven to eight weeks out with a quad strain, again raising questions about how so many players have broken down physically – particularly with soft tissue injuries this season. That, however, is a debate for another day.
In the meantime, the situation will force Martin O'Neill into another short-term solution while Alistair Johnston continues his recovery from hamstring surgery. Although the Canadian is targeting a return around the split, his comeback will inevitably need to be managed carefully after such a lengthy absence.
That leaves O’Neill with youngster Colby Donovan and the more experienced Anthony Ralston as his two right-back options for, at the very least, two defining league fixtures and a Scottish Cup semi-final.
So, who gets the nod for the coming weeks?
What Celtic will miss from Julian Araujo
Before addressing that question, it is worth briefly examining the right-back incumbent for the last few months, Araujo, and the impact he has made since arriving in early January.
Araujo was the ill-fated Wilfried Nancy’s only signing before his dismissal. The 24-year-old joined on a straight six-month loan deal from Bournemouth, with no option to buy. A player Nancy knew from his time in MLS – where Araujo’s performances for LA Galaxy earned him a dream move to Barcelona – the Mexican was viewed as someone capable of filling either the right wing-back or right centre-back role in the Frenchman’s system.
After appearing from the bench in Nancy’s final match, the 3-1 defeat to Rangers, Araujo made his first start in O’Neill’s opening game back in charge, the 4-0 victory over Dundee United. He settled quickly, endearing himself to the Celtic support with a dramatic late winner at Rugby Park in February. Combative displays in the double-header with Rangers at Ibrox last month followed, the latter of which may even prove to be his last outing in green and white.
The first radar, shown above, highlights Araujo’s relative defensive solidity during his short spell in the hoops over the last few months. He has averaged over two possession-adjusted tackles and more than two possession-adjusted interceptions per 90 minutes, while posting a respectable 79 per cent Tackle/Dribbled Past%.
Admittedly, the sample size is not huge, but Araujo did log 9.4 full 90s in the Scottish Premiership. His data does indicate a slightly elevated foul rate, averaging 1.38 per 90.
In possession, however, he has offered more than Donovan or Ralston this season (more on that shortly). Araujo has recorded 9.45 deep progressions per 90 and contributed 0.82 expected goals buildup (xGBuildup) per 90, underlining a relative effectiveness in advance play from deeper areas.
Hudl StatsBomb’s on-ball value (OBV) metrics also rate his passing and dribbling, and ball-carrying pretty well, particularly the latter. However, despite operating in a Celtic side that has not exactly functioned smoothly in recent months, this has not translated to much by way of any significant end-product in the final third.
As the second radar also illustrates, his 0.07 open-play expected goals assisted (xG Assisted) per 90 sits only marginally above the league average for full-backs in the Premiership this year.
Whether Araujo has shown enough to justify pursuing a permanent deal this summer can also be a discussion for another day. What is clear, however, is that he has provided more reliable cover for Johnston since the turn of the year than the alternatives previously available.
Colby Donovan vs Anthony Ralston
O’Neill will need to rely on those alternatives for at least the next few weeks though. Donovan was the preferred choice in the final two league games before the international break and appears the likely candidate to continue filling the right-back void.
That said, O’Neill could also turn back to Ralston, who recently earned his 25th international cap in Scotland’s 1-0 friendly defeat to Japan at Hampden.
Both Donovan’s and Ralston’s data from this season should be treated somewhat cautiously – small samples, and there is plenty of ‘noise’ due to much of their minutes coming under previous managers. Ralston has also logged more than twice the minutes of Donovan, which should be considered when comparing their outputs.
Defensively, there is little to separate the pair in tackles and interceptions. Donovan is slightly more active, predictably perhaps given his youth, registering around three more pressures per 90, and he edges Ralston in Tackle/Dribbled Past%, i.e., he is dribbled past less.
In possession, Ralston looks, at first glance, the more productive option. He posts a higher expected goals buildup (xGBuildup) at 0.81 per 90 compared with Donovan’s slim 0.64, and he also demonstrates greater ball security with a turnover rate of just 0.31 per 90, compared to Donovan’s 1.04.
However, that possession efficiency has not fully translated into higher OBV scores. Donovan holds a slight edge here, registering 0.10 OBV per 90 – matching Araujo in this metric – while Ralston lags slightly behind at 0.08. That, coupled with his greater security on the ball, perhaps points to Ralston being overly safe in possession.
Neither player approaches Araujo’s impact when it comes to dribble and carry OBV, and both have badly struggled to generate a significant final-third threat too. Donovan posts 0.07 open-play xG assisted per 90 – same as Araujo, with Ralston even lower at 0.05 (again, more signs of being too safe).
A final point in Donovan’s favour is his aerial ability – he boasts the highest success rate of the three, winning 83 per cent of his duels. Combined with his other defensive work, Donovan also registers the highest Defensive Action OBV at 0.07 per 90, albeit with the usual caveat regarding sample size.
Ultimately, there is little to separate the two here. Donovan offers athleticism and some promising points in his underlying data, certainly for his first professional minutes, but he remains, predictably for a young player, inconsistent. Ralston, at 27, presents a potentially more secure, reliable option, though with likely much more limited impact going forward.
Alistair Johnston's return
The injury to Araujo, coupled with the lack of a high-quality stand-in, will inevitably sharpen the focus on Johnston’s return.
Having been rushed back too quickly for a Europa League fixture in October following his initial hamstring injury, sustained in the Champions League play-off defeat against Kairat Almaty, Johnston has since spoken openly about not making the same mistake again. Expecting him to slot straight back into the starting XI for the first post-split match and immediately play every minute of what will likely be the most intense fixtures of the season appears unrealistic.
However, if Celtic can restore the Canadian international to somewhere near his previous level, it would provide a timely and significant boost heading into the final stretch.
Albeit within a much (much!) more settled and cohesive side, Johnston’s numbers from last season’s league campaign underline what Celtic have been missing in his absence.
Although partly due to Celtic’s greater domestic dominance last season – meaning fewer defensive actions were required – his core defensive metrics have generally always been solid. More telling, however, are his contributions in possession. Last season in the league, Johnston averaged 10.51 deep progressions per 90 and 1.10 expected goals buildup (xGBuildup) per 90, comfortably surpassing any Celtic right-back this season. Crucially, that increased involvement on the ball did not come at the expense of security in possession, with Johnston averaging fewer than one turnover per 90 in 2024/25.
The second radar highlights where the former Montreal defender truly stands out – and where Celtic have perhaps missed him most – his creative output. Johnston averaged 0.23 open play expected goals assisted (xG Assisted) per 90 last season.
That figure ranked as the second-highest in the league among all players (minimum 1,200 minutes played) and remains more than double the output produced by any of the three right-back options discussed here this season.
Of course, Johnston brings qualities that extend beyond the data too. He is clearly a strong personality within the squad, and the return of his leadership at such a crucial stage of the season could provide an additional lift inside the dressing room in these defining weeks of their campaign.
Donovan himself picked up a knock after colliding with advertising boards at Tannadice, but if fit, is likely to retain the starting role in the immediate term, particularly after being trusted in the final league matches before the international break. However, and in the aftermath of that defeat to Dundee United before the break, O’Neill may also be tempted to give Ralston an opportunity during the run-in due to his greater experience.
Neither option replaces what Araujo had been bringing in recent months though, and neither comes close to replicating Johnston’s all-round influence. The latter’s ability to effectively progress play, create quality chances and provide leadership has been sorely missed this season. Getting the Canadian back fit and firing, even for the final stretch, could yet prove to be a significant factor in shaping how Celtic’s campaign concludes.
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