Celtic wingers Forrest and Yang could re-energise the team

After Rangers’ home defeat to Hibernian at Ibrox the previous day, the onus was on Brendan Rodgers’ side to move another step closer to the league title, though this did not transpire on Sunday. 

Celtic went behind after four minutes due to Daniels Balodis’ header from a free-kick, which was to be the only goal of the game, despite the visitors to Perth making a barrage of chances, particularly in the second half.

Using StatsBomb data, metrics and analytics, The Celtic Way’s Ryan McGinlay brings you a match report unlike any other…

Key stats + race chart

Despite Celtic not playing well enough on the day, the visitors to McDiarmid Park will be annoyed that they did not take anything from this game, given the chances created. With 26 shots (nine on target), 78 per cent possession, 743 passes (640 completed) and an 86 per cent pass success rate, Celtic controlled proceedings for large spells in Perth.

Despite only having four shots on target (nine overall), Simo Valakari’s side took their chance and threatened on a couple of other occasions during proceedings. By the end of the contest, no one was complaining about the result, despite the stats differential.

When observing the race chart, both teams were pretty even for large spells of the game concerning xG, though Celtic were slightly ahead, despite them being behind in the actual game. As the away side pushed to get back in the game, their xG total skyrocketed, ending up at 2.34 compared to 0.67 for the hosts.

Taking these xG totals into account, Celtic were given a 76 per cent chance of winning this contest, while a draw was calculated as a 17 per cent probability. The actual result – a St Johnstone win – was seven per cent.

Formation + passing

As usual, Rodgers set up his side in a 4-3-3 formation for this match, as Viljami Sinisalo started his first away game as a Celtic goalkeeper. Auston Trusty was restored to his side’s backline alongside Cameron Carter-Vickers, while Alistair Johnston and Jeffrey Schlupp occupied the full-back slots. Captain Callum McGregor was joined by Arne Engels and Reo Hatate in the midfield, while Daizen Maeda led the line, supported by Jota and Nicolas Kuhn on their respective wings.

Celtic’s passing network takes OBV (on-ball values) into account for players’ effectiveness while in possession of the football. It was a tale of two halves (without reward), as Celtic’s disjointedness was clear in the opening 45 minutes, as shown by the cold colours surrounding most of the outfield players (apart from Hatate and Jota).

They would improve in the second half, as their right side was extremely effective concerning OBV, as well as substitute James Forrest on the left. Carter-Vickers, Johnston, Luke McCowan, and Yang Hyun-jun all tried their best in possession to get Celtic back on terms, to no avail.

Forrest and Yang were Celtic’s best OBV performers with 0.51 and 0.26, respectively, while Hatate was the only player with an above-average total.

In terms of key passes, Hatate and Johnston had three, while Forrest, McCowan and Engels all had two each.

Read more: 

• The Celtic changes that must be executed after shocker at St Johnstone
• The worrying post-Hogmanay trend that Celtic and Brendan Rodgers need to remedy
• 'There's definitely anger' - Brendan Rodgers' brutal summation after Celtic defeat

Shooting

As mentioned previously, Celtic managed 26 shots on Sunday, with nine of their shots testing St Johnstone keeper Andy Fisher. Their selection of shots was varied on the day, as many were speculative from distance, while their close-range chances could not be taken when presented to Celtic’s attackers.

Despite having no goals to speak of (at least for Celtic), the best chance of the match fell to Forrest, following a ball into the box by fellow substitute Adam Idah. With the whole goal to aim at, the veteran inexplicably aimed the shot directly at goalkeeper Fisher, who made a reflex save to keep the ball out of his own net.

0.58 in xG, it somehow rose to 0.93 following the shot leaving his boot. Idah should have an assist to his name, while Forrest’s consecutive goal tally should have been maintained after this opportunity – he had to score.

Looking at shooting in general, Hatate had five shots, as did Idah, despite the Irishman coming on as a second-half change for Maeda. McCowan had four, while Forrest and Jota each had three. 

Defending

As is almost always the case when Celtic have more of the ball, St Johnstone outpressured their opponents by a rate of 227-94, while pressure regains were 32-19 in favour of the home side. Maeda led his team for pressures and counterpressures with 18 and 11 respectively.

The biggest moment of the game transpired when Balodis’ header hit the back of Sinisalo’s net in the fourth minute of the contest. After making a late run into the heart of the box, the defender hammered home a header, beating both Schlupp and Hatate to the ball in the process.

0.12 to 0.46 in xG-PSxG, the accurate cross into the box was matched by the stopper’s contact with the ball, as the hosts’ lead was maintained for 90 minutes after this goal was scored.

With five total tackles and interceptions, the off-form Carter-Vickers was Celtic’s busiest defender on the day in these metrics, though McGregor managed four of the latter. The defender also contributed 12 aerial wins and six clearances, while Trusty had seven and three for his own efforts. 

Final thoughts

For the fourth time this season (and in 2025 domestically), Celtic tasted defeat in the Scottish Premiership. For whatever reason, since the turn of the year, Rodgers’ team have looked susceptible to more than a few shock results, with 14 points now being dropped by the champions since January 2.

Though the substitutes did make a difference – a view that is shared by StatsBomb – the visitors to Perth did not do enough to get back in the game, despite making a barrage of chances.

The St Johnstone manager pre-match said he admired how “ruthless” Celtic are – they seemed to lose their bite last weekend when their hunger evaded them at McDiarmid Park.

There is plenty for Rodgers to ponder over in the lead-up to Saturday’s game against Kilmarnock at Celtic Park – improvements across the board will be sought by a disgruntled but somewhat apathetic support this weekend.