The international break allows us to take stock of the scoring contribution leaders in the SPFL.
Scoring Contribution is Goals + Assists. By now you’ll know the drill and realise we won’t be focussing on actual goals and assists – these are available on many outlets, but EXPECTED Goals and Assists.
The reason for this is that Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA) are better indicators of underlying performance and better predictors of future performance.
Furthermore, by reporting xG and xA on a “per 90 minutes” basis (xG90 and xA90) we can see each players contribution as an average irrespective of the number of real minutes played. It is fairly comparable.
xG Leaders
With no further preamble (waffle) needed. Here are the top 20 (21!) xG contributors (minimum 450 minutes completed):
There was some chatter over the weekend from Chris Sutton that Kyogo Furuhashi was by far the best player in the league. Well, he is certainly in a category of one by posting xG over 1 across his 664 Celtic minutes so far.
The next best is Roofe on a very high 0.82 across his 622 minutes. Interesting that neither player is close to playing every minute of every game. Perhaps that’s what keeps them sharp.
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Heart’s great start to the season is partly predicated on the consistent scoring of Liam Boyce who has the 3rd best xG rate. This includes penalties and that certainly helps here.
After Liel Abada and Alfredo Morelos, the names of two players playing for clubs outside the top two – Martin Boyle (Hibernian) and Tony Watt (Motherwell). Both are edging towards 0.5 xG per 90m.
Each SPFL club would want to see at least one of their strikers in this list. Worrying then for Dundee (Leigh Griffiths didn’t qualify through minutes played) and Livingston (they probably don’t care so long as the centre-halves are knocking some set plays in!).
xA Leaders
The top 20 Expected Assisters (xA) are as follows:
It's a slight surprise to see the talented St Mirren midfielder Jamie McGrath topping the chart with his teammate, left wing-back, Scott Tanser, not far behind.
They break a glut of Celtic’s attacking talent in Abada, Jota, David Turnbull and Tom Rogic before the first Ibrox player James Tavernier.
What this shows is that Rangers rely a lot on their full-backs and crosses, and that creativity is very much shared around the team with no truly outstanding creative talent (note: both Ianis Hagi 0.13 xA and Ryan Kent 0.06 xA have enough minutes to qualify for the list).
Special mention to young Aberdeen full-back Calvin Ramsey (18) who is 9th in his breakout season. Just in front of a certain Tony Ralston of Celtic. And Scottish right-backs not being the National Teams current strength...
Teams who do not have a player represented in the top 20 are St Johnstone who have a painfully pedestrian midfield, and Livingston, who again, probably don’t care. The Livi Lions may see passing and through balls as unnecessary fluff between long throws!
All Rounders
Finally, let's look at those who qualified for my overall lists based on the following criteria:
Minutes played > 450
xG > 0.2
xA > 0.15
Study this over a long coffee, or whilst imbibing state altering substances (legal ones, of course)!
From the top left, we see those heavily into creating, but not too bothered about the messing scoring stuff. Notable names are McGrath, Tanser, Ramsey and Ralston.
Next, we have those who are not prolific creators, but chip in and keep their team with a steady supply of chances. Names like Steven Davis, Sean Goss and Ilmari Niskanen operate here.
Further to the right we have the Steady Scorers. Every team needs at least one and Curtis Main, Christian Ramirez, Watt, Nicky Clark, Jordan White, Chris Kane perform that function satisfactorily. Credit to Leon Balogun, a centre back, for making this section. Don’t expect the creative stylings from these guys though.
Above them are the Minor Menaces. These players show the potential to be a pest both creatively and scoring-wise to a good level. Hagi, Bruce Anderson, Gary Mackay-Steven, Josh Magennis and Stevie May all do right for their teams in this space.
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Above them and we are getting to the serious talent. The All-Round Menaces are a constant threat anywhere near the area. A through ball or attempt at goal could soon follow. Tavernier, Joe Aribo, Rogic, Jota, Turnbull and the Hibernian pair of Boyle and Jamie Murphy are all in this much sought-after bracket.
Bottom left are the dead eye goal getters. No wasting time outside the box, it’s goals, goals goals. Here, Boyce, Morelos, Roofe, and Furuhashi give defenders the fear.
There is one final little island just lapping what I laughably refer to as the “Messi desert” (that space of over 0.5 xG and over 0.3 xA that few humans can comprehend). Lapping in the shallows of that uninhabitable territory is one Liel Abada.
He flatters, he deceives, he’s erratic, (he’s 19) but the lad likes output.
I’ll revisit later in the season.
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